sea ​​situation

"Since the Meiji Restoration, Japan has carried out comprehensive westernization and started the industrial revolution. Until today, Japan has entered the ranks of industrial countries and imperialism. However, compared with the old imperialisms of Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, Japan Imperialism is not worthy of its name, it can be called a shell imperialist country, or a beggar imperialist country." Lu Ming laughed.

"Okay! Beggar imperialist country, this term is very novel." Chen Mingshu laughed loudly.

Chen Mingshu looked down on the Japanese, thinking that the Japanese army relied on aircraft and cannons to show off their prestige. Apart from these, the Japanese army's combat effectiveness may not be very good.

"Why do I say this, let me talk about some data produced in Japan, and everyone will understand."

Lu Ming took out a note from his pocket, which recorded the analysis data of the Japanese economy by Sheng Youde and Sheng Muyi, and he planned to explain it to him one by one.

"Wait a minute, blackboard." Mr. Jiang said suddenly.

Lu Ming didn't expect Mr. Jiang to be so caring, and it seems that he placed a lot of hope in his explanation today.

Two tall guards came onto the stage, brought over a blackboard, chalk and chalk eraser, and walked off the stage quickly.

Lu Ming understood, this is to let him write all the numbers on the blackboard for everyone in the meeting to deliberate.

While talking, Lu Ming wrote down various data such as Japan's steel production, coal production, aquatic products and grain production on the blackboard line by line.

Then there is Japan's annual fiscal revenue, the amount of annual exports and imports, etc., and finally the military budget.

Lu Ming didn't know where Sheng Youde got these data, he just knew that these data must be true.

The data can speak. These numbers are linked together to represent what kind of country Japan is and what they are doing.

"It can be seen from these data that Japan's annual military expenditure has reached 40.00% to [-]% of its fiscal revenue, and in some years it was even higher. If any country's military expenditure reaches this proportion, there is only one word to describe it. That's it, it's a war." Lu Ming pointed to the data and said to everyone.

"Since it's militarism, of course it's preparing for a big battle and wants to wage a full-scale war." Chen Lilao spoke again.

"Little guy, didn't you just say that Japan can't afford an all-out war?" Minister Song asked with a smile.

Lu Ming looked at this young minister, who was actually not much older than himself. He said that the elders were a bit reluctant, and that he was a little older than his peers.

"Mr. Minister, everyone, please look at this set of data. Japan's economic income and expenditure are now barely balanced, but this is only to maintain the current state of armaments. Although I am not an expert in military affairs or economics, I know a simple The truth.” Lu Ming drew a circle outside with chalk.

Deng Wenyi and Kang Ze talked for a while at the back, and now they returned to the front seats, they were also attracted by Lu Ming's explanation.

"If Japan needs to spend 1 according to the current military expenditure, then in a local conflict war with China, Japan needs to increase its military expenditure by 2, then there will be a gap in Japan's financial expenditure. If this local conflict It can be resolved quickly, and this gap can be barely filled through other methods." Lu Ming continued.

"If we really go to war with us for a long time, will they really not be able to sustain it?" A civilian official next to General Wen Bai asked.

"The data tell us that if this local conflict is not effectively controlled, or out of control, then even if there is a long-term local war, Japan's military expenditure will exceed the budget by 3 to 4 times. In this case, Japan There will be a huge deficit in their finances, which will affect their established national policy of expanding the navy." Lu Ming explained.

"If Japan occupies Shanghai, Wuhan, or similar cities and engages in a long-term local war with us, will this result?" A young officer in the back row stood up and asked.

"Yes, the consequence is that Japan has no financial resources to build aircraft carriers, battleships, cruisers and other large surface combat ships, let alone the modern design and manufacture of the air force. Their ambition to dominate Asia will not be realized."

"With the combat capabilities of Japan's existing large surface combat ships, it doesn't hinder Japan's military operations in Asia, right?" a civilian official asked suspiciously.

"To deal with the weak countries in Asia, Japan's existing force can definitely dominate, but everyone, don't forget that Japan's old enemy, the Soviet Union, has been waiting for Japan to make a foolish move. If Japan breaks through 3 to 4 times its military expenditure, its national power will be greatly reduced. Overwhelmed, will the Soviet Union spare him?" Lu Ming actually sneered on stage.

"What will be the consequences?" Deng Wenyi couldn't help asking.

"Japan collapsed!" Lu Ming said firmly.

"You mean, from an economic point of view, it can be concluded that it is the most cost-effective for Japan to fight a partial, controllable, short-term war with us, so the possibility of a full-scale war is extremely small." General Wenbai said .

Lu Ming nodded, put down the chalk in his hand, and clapped his hands.

The people sitting below were all silent. Although all the people present here were important officials of the party, government and military, almost none of them really understood economics.

In China, there are mainly two types of people who understand economics, one is scholars engaged in international economic research, and the other is capitalists engaged in transnational operations.

Even Minister Song, because he is in charge of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of China and has the ability to raise funds and borrow money overseas by virtue of his family relationship, he has no knowledge of the real economy.

Of course Lu Ming doesn't understand economics, but behind him are two world-class economics experts.

"Little guy, do you think Japan can't make up for their military losses by invading our country and robbing our resources?" Chen Mingshu asked.

"General, by launching a war of aggression and robbing other countries' wealth and resources to make up for their own losses, or even increase their own country's wealth, that is the previous mode of war. The last one who successfully implemented this mode was Japan's attack on us. The Sino-Japanese War, they won the Sino-Japanese War, and received [-] million taels of silver war indemnity from our country, equivalent to four years of Japan's fiscal revenue, this time they succeeded."

"Why doesn't it work now?" Chen Mingshu continued to ask.

"During the Russo-Japanese War, it was also imperialism, and Japan's strategy of supporting war with war became invalid. Although they snatched Russia's rights and interests in Northeast my country, they did not receive a tael of war indemnity. Japan because of this The war drained the treasury, and as a result there was almost a Japanese peasant revolution at home."

Hearing the words "peasant revolution", there was a burst of laughter from the audience. They might think that the Communist Party is the peasant revolution.

"Let's take a look at the last European war (World War I). There was an all-out war between Britain, France, Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Tsarist Russia. What was the result? France was almost in ruins. Germany also had to choose a humiliating surrender because of the collapse of its domestic economy, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was completely disintegrated, and Tsarist Russia triggered the October Revolution because of economic turmoil. Even Britain, the world's most powerful country, is facing the disintegration of the colonial system edge."

"Modern warfare will really hurt the vitality of the countries participating in the war." General Wen Bai couldn't help sighing.

Lu Ming went on to say: "Although these results are composed of many factors, there is one thing that is fundamental. Whether it is the defeat of Germany, the disintegration of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, or the fall of Tsarist Russia, all of these are related to the country's economy. Crash related."

"Although the economic collapse was caused by the long-term overwhelm, the collapse itself is an instant event. I can understand this." Minister Song finally said something sincere.

"If Japan wants to start an all-out war forcibly now, their result will be like Germany and Tsarist Russia. The economy will collapse, and then there will be revolutions in the country, the army will be disbanded, the government will collapse, and it will even endanger the state system ruled by the Emperor of Japan. This is The risk that Japan dare not take at all." Lu Ming's thinking has reached a new level, thanks to Teacher Frank.

"I know this. The emperor's national system is the lifeblood of all Japanese, and no one dares to touch this." Chen Guolao finally opened his mouth.

"Their invasion of China can snatch a lot of resources and wealth, but it is far from making up for their huge military expenditure. The oppression of the people at the bottom in Japan has reached a critical point. If the heavy burden of the war is added, these people at the bottom are living. If you can’t go on, you can only rise up and rebel, and that’s when the Japanese Communist Party seizes power.” Lu Ming slipped away, and when he didn’t pay attention, his own values ​​were revealed.

Just as Lu Ming finished speaking, Mr. Jiang suddenly applauded. The others felt a little puzzled, but they had no choice but to applaud accordingly.